Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
